Constitutional amendment:Defiant, Paul Biya embarks upon a risky adventure!

EDITORIAL, The Herald Newspaper

Against opposition at home and from vital donors abroad Biya has gone ahead to amend the constitution so as to stay in power beyond 2011. To ignore powerful foreign partners and the kind of people power we witnessed recently is foolhardy. Biya may still be counting on his usual good luck which has helped him to escape the sanctions of the international community for a long history of flawed elections. But his poor record in office over 25 years can no longer guarantee
that luck. This time we will see how he will escape both donors’ wrath and people power.

Those whom the gods will destroy, they first render mad! Anyone familiar with the extreme unpopularity of Paul Biya’s intention to continue in office after 2011 cannot but suspect that this ancient Greek observation is now at work in Cameroon.

The fierceness with which the policies of the government, particularly the amendment of the
constitution, are opposed was symbolised in the rioting, looting and destruction of February’s strike.

Cameroonians have not been alone in opposing Biya’s risky adventure. The EU, France and Britain, Cameroon’s most important donors, took turns only last week to urge the president to retire so there can be power change in 2011. That year Biya will be clocking 28 continuous years in office!

The US position which had been made known a lot earlier was exactly the same as that of the Europeans. US authorities have even been urging Biya to make good a promise he made to George W. Bush at the White House five years ago that he would unfailingly retire in
2011.
It was against that background that Biya went ahead last Friday and sent the constitutional
amendment bill to parliament. There was absolutely no question that Biya was
determined to defy, or even confront, these powers as well as ignore the will of Cameroonians!

In fact, it happened that Biya sent his bill to parliament right after receiving Georges Serre, the
French ambassador, who had come to personally convey both the French government and the EU common position on the matter. Disregard, you might call that.

How else would one regard Biya other than that he is on the road to self-destruction? Think of it. It was the sympathetic support of donor governments that permitted the regime another lease on life with the 2006 admission into the HIPC initiative (ie total debt cancellation).

Without their support Cameroon would be rejected by multilateral donors like the World bank/IMF and all the assistance they grant. The regime could be choked out of existence. But does Biya care?

One must admit, though, that the Etoudi occupant has so far had a good record in escaping the wrath of the international community. Just imagine how good Biya’s luck has been.

Since October 1992, Yaounde has repeatedly escaped punishment for deliberately refusing to correct its flawed electoral system that keeps the regime in power.

Cameroon’s twelve-year membership of the Commonwealth is a story of broken promises, starting with Biya’s brazen refusal to adhere to the Harare Declaration, the very principles of good governance by which membership is defined.

On the issue of a credible electoral system, Biya’s sense of impunity and defiance was openly displayed in December 2006 when he made a sudden u-turn on the Commonwealth with which he had worked for a year and a half at his own request to create a “truly independent election management organ in Cameroon.”

But the Commonwealth forgave the affront with amazing grace. Such is the generous pardon that Biya has usually received for his political sinfulness. No doubt the president feels confident his streak of good luck will continue with the present adventure.

If his overall record had been glowing there would probably be good reason to continue to count on the goodwill of the international community. But that is far from being so.

In the last one year international watchdogs on good governance, corruption, governmental efficiency, and more all took turns to rank Cameroon low on their scales of performance. A Gallop survey also put Biya’s approval rating at a meagre 16%.

Given such a horrific record; given the already long years in office, and given the daringness of the project that can only be achieved with rigged elections, it remains to see if this time the
international community would be complacent.

And even if that failed the huge and explosive anger of the masses, a bit of which was witnessed at the recent strike, is an ever-looming danger to watch.

With the odds that Biya has so painstakingly stacked against himself, isn’t it just possible that the
president is still counting on luck that may since have left him?
Hasn’t the president provoked the vengeance of the
gods?