Bakassi hijacking: The real danger goes beyond the present incident

The recent hijacking of a Total ship carrying ten of the company’s workers is a really testy development for the Yaounde authorities unused to dealing with such a situation.

The two dangers that the government must immediately foresee in dealing with the present case are insecurity in Bakassi and the disruption of Cameroon’s oil production activities.
What is troubling about the incident is that the rebels are calling themselves ‘Bakassi freedom fighters.’ The say they were not consulted in the handover of the Peninsula by Nigeria to Cameroon.

Does that suggest that they want to challenge Cameroon’s sovereignty over the place? Or how do they want to be brought into the transfer deal that was between two legitimate governments?
The second danger is that of the disruption of oil drilling activities which permanent insecurity within Cameroonian waters would cause. Nigeria has a sad story in this respect.
The drop in Nigeria’s production due to the activities of the Niger delta rebels is estimated at between one quarter and a half. This has forced Nigeria to trim down its oil revenue projections. At its peak Nigeria produces 3.5 million barrels per day.

Cameroon’s relatively small output which presently stands at 86,000 barrel/day could come to a halt and that will knock off about one quarter of the government’s budget. That wouldn’t be comfortable at all for the free-wheeling spending of the Yaounde authorities.
The Nigerian authorities are presently at their wits’ end in dealing with the oil disruption activities of the delta rebels. So Cameroon must not underestimate the problem the present case signifies.

The authorities must also reckon with the fact that those rebels are backed by powerful interests, Nigerian and foreign, who actually bring in their own oil tankers and brazenly load them to take away to the market abroad. So the Yaounde authorities ain’t seen anything yet!
In the present case Cameroon is comforted by the strong implication of France and Total, a powerful multinational. Together they would readily pick up any ransom bill, to Yaounde’s greatest relief, ie if the rebels want money which it seems they don’t want.

Paul Biya has raised the question of who should be behind the rag tag
rebel gang capable of such fearless pirate activities. The question may be useful but takes Biya practically no where. Nigeria has that answer but does nothing with it.
The experience of Nigeria tells us that not a single country in the Gulf region can contain these activities. Talks, spearheaded by the Americans, about the need to secure oil production within the Gulf of Guinea has been going on for a long time now but actual action has been rather slow in coming. A promising solution would be combined action by all countries of the region backed by the strong support of their powerful partners who provide adequate equipment, weaponry and training for the navies of the region.

The present case provides Cameroon the opportunity to call for this support from the US, France, the EU. That seems to be the best way forward.

The observer